 Most are familiar with the saying, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” So it is no wonder that I hesitate before venturing into an arena where clarity is a rarity. I certainly understand why one of the first questions that potential buyers and sellers of property ask is, “How is the market doing?”
Unfortunately, it is very hard to say. There is some good raw data at Suffolk Research on median sales price, unit sales, and sales value for the Town of Southold and for each individual hamlet. Of course, focusing on the median price can be misleading if, for example, market forces result in an inordinate number of either higher or lower priced houses being sold. Unit sales numbers tell about activity, which often peaks along with prices. However, you can also see a lot of sales volume when prices are steady. Or you can see very little sales volume when prices are steady.
Complicating matters on the North Fork is the difficulty in finding comparable properties. This is not a suburb where there are a large number of similar houses and neighborhoods. Soundfront is different from creekfront is different from bayfront. And bayfront in Laurel is different from bayfront in East Marion. I think you get the idea.
Perhaps the most useful indicator is how long houses are on the market before going into contract with an accepted offer. The shorter the time span, the more likely that prices are rising.
Each of these statistics provides a piece of the puzzle, though even with them, the puzzle is by no means complete. That’s why North Fork Insider, our monthly newsletter, will refer to all of them, as well as more subjective, “on the ground” information in order to try to provide a feel for the market direction. |
